‘The Art of Thinking Clearly’ by Rolf Dobell
10 Lessons on Thinking Clearly
You probably believe you’re very rational. But, here’s a scientifically proven fact: you’re not. ‘The Art of Thinking Clearly’ by Rolf Dobell explains why.
You rely on mental shortcuts and easily accessed rules. These helped your ancestors survive through millennia.
However, these rules have given rise to fallacies that don’t necessarily serve you.
You can avoid the pitfalls of your preconfigured mind by understanding your errors. Here is some guidance as to how to think clearly.
First, you must understand the following ten fallacies.
1) You overestimate your abilities.
Are you sure you’re honest with yourself regarding your abilities? Are you aware other people are delusional, but you’re certain you’re not?
Unfortunately, studies prove you are almost certainly wrong. We are all overconfident in many areas of life. It’s called the Dunning-Kruger effect.
For example, 84 percent of Frenchmen believe themselves to be above-average lovers. Ninety-three percent of US students say they are ‘above-average’ drivers. Sixty-eight percent of the University of Nebraska faculty think they are in the top 25%.
A moments consideration and you’ll see none of this can be true. Statistically, only 50 percent can be above average.
We also blame our failures on things outside our control. Meanwhile, we take full credit for our successes.
2) You control less than you believe.
The ‘illusion of control’ is a belief we can influence things that are, in fact, impossible for us to control.
This seems to be a mechanism for enduring pain. One study showed that subjects could put up with noise in a booth if they had a panic button. This was true even though the button was a dummy.
An example of this is the buttons at crosswalks. The majority don’t do anything. However, they give us a false sense of control and make it easier for us to wait.
We are also sure we can predict the future. A ten-year study analysed 28,361 predictions from 284 experts. Their predictions turned out to be only slightly better than random predictions.
3) You conform.
Human beings like their behaviour to match other people’s. This is called ‘social proof’. Our survival depends on conformity.
For example, when a musician performs, someone in the audience may burst into applause. This triggers others in the audience to join in. This is called ‘herd instinct’.
It’s easy to see why we behave this way. The stray animal on the edge of the herd is more likely to be prey for a predator.
More examples include fashion, the stock markets, and even collective suicides.
An insidious consequence of herd instinct is that we change our opinions to conform. When we accept the reasoning of the collective, we support group unity.
4) You interpret information to confirm what you already believe.
We interpret information to keep our conclusions intact. Confirmation bias is “the mother of all misconceptions.”
Most of us consume the news by visiting sites that confirm our existing convictions. We surround ourselves with like-minded people and become even more convinced.
Confirmation bias causes us to filter out anything that contradicts our existing self-image.
Astrology and tarot-card reading appear to work because of our confirmation biases. The psychologist Bertram Forer created fake astrological personality readings. Eight-six percent of his subjects found them accurate. This has become known as the ‘Forer Effect.’
5) You value things according to scarcity and comparison.
We rely on comparison to make judgments. It’s a bad idea to go to a night club with a friend more attractive than you. Your friend will make you appear less attractive than you are.
There is a classic experiment involving a bucket of ice water and a bucket of lukewarm water. If you put your hand first in the ice water, the lukewarm water will feel hot.
This is known as the contrast-effect.
We also form a judgment of value based on scarcity. People given a whole box of cookies rated them lower than people given only two cookies.
Our tendency to overvalue the scarce is exploited by consumer sales.
6) You believe exotic explanations.
To understand the world, we form stories from the information. This is why we can forget what was in a simple shopping list, but will easily remember a movie’s details.
We prefer stories to facts. If a bridge collapses, we are bored by the details of the bridge’s construction. However, we are all ears regarding the details of the person who died.
In addition, we love exciting stories. We are far more likely to believe extraordinary explanations to mundane ones. This is true even when mundane explanations are more probable.
Doctors are trained to investigate the most likely causes of illness first. Otherwise, their inclination might be to imagine more exotic causes.
7) You don’t notice things right before your eyes.
A famous Harvard study demonstrated something called the ‘illusion of attention.’
Subjects watched a video of students passing basketballs. They were instructed to count how often players in white T-shirts passed the ball.
Half of the students were unaware when someone dressed as a gorilla walked onto the court. You may have seen this video yourself.
This is why cellphones during driving are so dangerous.
You also pay more attention to information that arrives first or last and tend to ignore the middle.
Would you prefer:
To be in an elevator with Allan, who is smart, ambitious, good looking, critical, and jealous?
Or with Ben, who is jealous, critical, good looking, ambitious, and smart?
Most people choose Allan, even though the only difference is the order of the words. This is called the primacy effect. You base your judgments on the information you get first.
The recency effect means you remember information you were exposed to most recently.
8) You are exhausted by decision making.
Researchers set up a supermarket stand with different jelly samples. On the first day, shoppers had a choice of 24 varieties of jelly. On the second day, only six were on display. People bought ten times more jelly on day two.
Too much choice seemed to overwhelm shoppers and stop them from buying anything at all. This is called the paradox of choice.
Having too many options exhausts you. It gives you decision fatigue.
A psychologist gave two groups pairs of items. The first group had to state which they liked better. The second group only had to write down what they thought about each item.
Afterward, they were asked to put their hands in ice-cold water. The first group couldn’t keep their hands in the water for as long as the second group.
9) You like others if they’re attractive, flatter you, or remind you of yourself
A single positive quality overrides anything else. This is known as the halo effect.
We judge others according to how good-looking they are. We perceive attractive people to be more honest and intelligent.
We also use identifiable features to form judgments. This can lead us to stereotyping.
We also like people who are like us and according to how much they seem to like us. Salespeople use this tendency to their advantage.
10) Your decisions are guided by emotion.
A study showed that the stock markets are influenced by how sunny or not it is.
Answer this question. Are you in favor of genetically modified food?
If you were rational, you’d weigh the advantages and disadvantages first. But you probably made a mental shortcut, guided by your emotions, to arrive at your conclusion. This is what most people do.
Our decisions are formed by what emotion arises in us first.
To sum up
You believe yourself to be much more rational than you are.
You overestimate your abilities.
You conform to be like the people around you.
You seek out information that confirms what you already believe.
You don’t make absolute judgments, but rely on comparison and perception of scarcity.
You believe exotic explanations.
You prefer a limited selection.
You don’t notice things that are right in front of you.
You like others according to how beautiful they are, whether they flatter you or appear to like you.
Your decisions are guided by your emotions.
The takeaway
So now you know the ways you are deluded, what can you do? Are you doomed to cloudy thinking, knee-jerk reactions, and poorly considered decisions? Do these cognitive fallacies trap you forever?
Let’s not jump to pessimistic conclusions. Here are a few actionable steps the book suggests:
Ask an honest friend for a candid opinion on your strengths and weaknesses.
Take responsibility for failures and understand success may be down to luck.
Focus on the things you can influence.
Be wary of all predictions, whether your own or others.
Observe yourself and your behavior. Question your own beliefs. Ask yourself if they were formed by reason or because you are following the group.
Seek contrary opinions and points of view outside of your ‘bubble’.
Judge the value of something by the cost and benefits.
Look for the most likely explanations first. “When you hear hoofbeats, don’t expect a zebra.”
Be happy with a “good” choice, rather than always worrying about the “best” choice.
Bring awareness to your lack of rationality and you can learn to override your fallacies. As you educate yourself and notice your thinking errors, you can overcome your default modes.
In conclusion
‘The Art of Thinking Clearly’ by Rolf Dobelli invites you to clear the cobwebs from your mind. By observing your cognitive presets, you can learn to see the world and yourself through a clear lens.
May you step forward in your life with clear thinking and genuine rationality.
